shareholder letter
December 31, 2008
Dear Fellow
Shareholders,
This is our
first Shareholder Letter since opening the KCM Macro Trends Fund on August 4,
2008. In hindsight, it would have
been difficult to pick a more challenging period in market history to start a
new equity fund. Despite the
challenges presented, the fund has met one of its primary goals: to reduce
client losses during declining market periods.
We accomplished this through the use of active risk management.
The fund is
now on several mutual fund platforms including Charles Schwab, TD Ameritrade and
Southwest Securities. We have chosen
to limit the fund’s availability exclusively to clients of Kerns Capital
Management.
The KCM Macro
Trends Fund differs from most mutual funds in that it has a flexible investment
policy.[1]
The fund’s objective is to maximize reward while minimizing risk. As with any investment, it is not
possible to avoid risk completely so we seek to minimize and manage risk. The fund strives to be nimble and
responsive to major market cycle changes by moving out of "Harm’s Way" during
recessions and to capitalize on best performing sectors in stronger markets.
We employ a
risk-averse investment strategy predicated on the belief that strong long-term
investment results are best achieved through the avoidance of major losses and
the compounding of reasonable gains.
If we can miss the majority of major market cycle downturns and capture the
majority of major cycle upturns, we will not only protect shareholder assets,
but the long-term growth of those assets should be substantially greater than
market growth.
We look at
companies of all sizes and types located throughout the world but traded on US
stock exchanges. We want the
flexibility to invest in great ideas regardless of size and do not see any
reason to restrict our investing to "Style Boxes".
Our focus in
the current market environment is on companies with high free-cash-flow yields,
10% being very attractive. Companies
with high free-cash-flow can finance their own growth, an attractive attribute
in an environment where borrowing is difficult even for the best companies. High free-cash-flow also allows
companies to maintain and increase their dividends, buy back their own stock or
acquire other companies. We also
believe that high free-cash-flow companies make attractive acquisition targets.
We also look
for growing earnings and sales.
Increasing sales can make up for a multitude of problems in recessionary times
and are a necessity for long-term growth in stock price. We are looking for growth, and aim
for stocks we feel will double their share price in three to five years. The majority of the upside comes from
earnings growth.
In order to
manage risk and volatility during market declines, we are willing to hold high
percentages of cash if we feel the market offers more risk of loss than
opportunity for gain. Additional
risk-management includes hedging market risks through the purchase of securities
such as futures or ETFs that move in the opposite direction of the market. Through market downturns, these tools
allow us to hold stocks of companies we feel have good long-term growth
potential. Statistics show that when
markets go down, three out of four stocks go down – even the good ones. Therefore, having the ability to
Hedge out market risk greatly reduces potential market losses. This approach is validated by the
fact that we missed 79.5% of the market downturn as measured by the S&P 500
Index from the date the fund was opened through the market bottom on 11/20/08.[2]
The fund also
has the ability to be slightly net-short if we feel that severe market declines
are eminent. Being net-short when
the market is declining means that the fund should increase in value. It is not anticipated that we will be
in this position very often if at all.
Our objective
is to hold approximately 100 stocks with initial positions around 1% of the
portfolio. Diversifying risk among
this number of holdings reduces the stock-specific risk of holding too much of a
single company. When positions grow
beyond 2% of the portfolio, consideration will be given to reducing the
position.
Our use of
fundamental stock analysis combined with technical analysis of the market is
then overlaid with our Macro approach to investing. We pay close attention to the
strength of the US economy compared to other economies around the world as well
as the growth or decline in the value of different world currencies. Geopolitical risk is also considered
in picking or holding stocks.
If we feel we
hold strong companies, we are prepared to hold them and hedge the risk of market
declines. However, to obtain better
value when acquiring new positions, we prefer to wait until they are near the
bottom of any market decline they may be experiencing.
We feel that
the ability to utilize all available investment tools and styles enhances our
ability to preserve and grow client portfolios.
A substantial portion of our personal net worth is invested in the fund
to align our interests with our client’s interests.
We sincerely
appreciate the trust and confidence of our investors and believe that our
approach to investing will add value to every client’s long-term financial well
being.
M. Lane Kerns
Martin L.
Kerns, II
Kerns Capital
Management, Inc.
Mutual Funds involve risk including the possible loss of principal. Performance
data is historical. Current
performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. Past performance does not guarantee
future results.
Investors
should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses
of the KCM Macro Trends Fund. The Fund
may invest in small, less well-known companies, which may be subject to more
erratic market movements than large-cap stocks; foreign securities, which are
subject to currency fluctuations and political uncertainty; and derivative
securities, which may carry market, credit, and liquidity risks. These
risks may result in greater share price volatility. This and other important
information about the Fund is contained in the prospectus, which can be obtained
by calling
1-877-275-5599. The prospectus should
be read carefully before investing. The KCM Macro Trends Fund is distributed by
Northern Lights Distributors, LLC member FINRA/SIPC.
0017-NLD-1/8/2009
[1]
KCMTX
is classified by Bloomberg Finance LP, an independent research and rating
service, as and asset allocation fund having a "flexible portfolio" strategy,
meaning the fund can "invest in securities without restriction to asset classes"
or "defined asset percentages". As
of January 22, 2009, fewer than 7% of the 35,679 open ended mutual funds tracked
by Bloomberg carried this classification.
[2] For
the period August 4, 2008 to November 20, 2008, the S&P 500 Index (dividend
adjusted) was down 41.93%; KCMTX was down 8.6%.
The S&P 500
Index is an unmanaged composite of
500 common stocks. This index is widely used by
professional investors as a performance benchmark. You cannot invest directly in an
index.
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